“Fourth industrial Revolution”, distributed production, end of a world or new cycle? A volatile model

by Deborah Liebart; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2593130 (Originally appeared on DisputatioMagistrorum)

• Warning ! new study in progress !

« In the actual public debate, the prevalent perception seems to be that the substituability of humans by machines reaches a new and unprecedented level. Such fears have been fulled by a study conducted by Frey ans Osborne (2013) that tries to estimate the susceptibility of employment to automation. The study suggests that 47 % of all persons employed in the US are working in jobs that could be performed by computers and algorithms, within the next 10 to 20 years, while Brzeski and Burk (2015) estimate the share of jobs at risk of automation to be as high as 59 % in Germany. Bowles (2014) finds the share of jobs that are susceptible to automation in Europe, to range between 45 to more than 60 % »…

Artificial intelligence to « replace humans  » (?), profound socio-economic changes, democratization of the means of production, development of counterfeiting, questioning about intellectual property…, this « fourth industrial Revolution », agile, flexible, redesigns established codes by redefining our perception of work, by reshaping entrepreneurial and consumption models.

What about tomorrow ? An unemployed nation ? Most humans workers, replaced by automation ? Can we imagine, humans substituted by autonomous machines communicating with each other in a network and capable of self-redefinition by integration of feedback in larges and autonomous « robots farms » ? Or, may be, (why not), a new era… a society, in which, robots and the automation could become the allies of the Humanity by allowing to avoid the painfullness of work, executing repetitive activities…

Can we imagine developing teleworking, in large scale, thanks to NICT and 3D printing ?

…The purpose of this new study, (as a second step in our larger study concerning the reshaping of the actual world economic model …), will be to go back on an interconnected, futuristic « revolution », which, like a dwarf on the shoulders of a giant, borrows from the past elements of language, productive models and managerial practices…

As usual, we will use historical experience to propose relevant, coherent models for building a more inclusive and dignified society, a « story of History », (a long terme history), in which reflexion takes lead over facts, in which historical experience could be used as a new way of empowering humanity, by redefining our vision of economic and societal models, proposing new ways of thinking and acting for a fairer and more sustainable society…

Is « the fourth revolution » really an industrial revolution ? What is the impact of automation on the entrepreunarial, social, economic model ? Is distributed production an unprecedented innovation in History ?

Regularly, I will post on this blog to report on the progress and initial results.

As usual, do not hesitate to comment….

… Pour aller plus loin…

Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn  (2016), « The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis », OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en / Frey, Osborne, « The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,”Oxford Martin School, 2013, p.44. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf